Kiel Marine Science

Projecting future climate-induced migration: a residual, gravity-based spatial interaction approach

01.07.2019 von 16:15 bis 17:45

Geography Lecture Hall (R.09), Ludewig-Meyn-Str. 12, CAU

Prof. Dr. Bryan Jones, City University of New York

The recently released World Bank report, Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, introduced a new method for projecting potential future climate-induced internal migration using a gravity-based statistical model that accounts for climate impacts on certain livelihoods. The model represents one of the first attempts to establish the historic relationship between spatial population change and climate-driven impacts on livelihoods, and using this information in conjunction with climate and socio-economic scenarios, to project spatially explicit, sub-national migration. Here we explain the base methodology developed for Groundswell, present subsequent model enhancements and applications, and discuss results within the context of Sub-Saharan Africa.

The talk will be in English!

Kolloquium am Geographischen Institut
Nassos Vafeidis

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